The challenges DeSantis faces
In the eyes of several prominent Republican strategists, all of whom agreed to speak on the condition of anonymity to speak candidly about the party’s uncertain 2024 field, the lasting power of DeSantis’ superior standing against Biden is far from certain.
One Trump-aligned Republican consultant said a major challenge for DeSantis is the narrow political lane in which he currently finds himself, given voters’ still significant levels of uncertainty about him should he launch a presidential bid after Florida’s Legislature concludes its session this spring.
While much has been made of DeSantis’ crusade against critical race theory and attacks on “woke” culture, he’s been boosted in the broader electorate by the kinds of groups that may be averse to that pugnacious style — such as college-educated white voters, moderates and people who voted for Biden in 2020.
All of that will be litigated on the campaign trail, the Trump-aligned strategist said, along with DeSantis’ past posture toward free trade, which could weaken his standing with working-class white voters, or his current aversion to talking about Ukraine, which could hurt him with the right. There’s also the issue of Social Security and Medicare, programs that Trump and Biden have urged the GOP to protect — and that DeSantis has supported privatizing, which could hurt him with older voters.
Others believe that the mere fact that he has some cross-ideological appeal could prove ironically problematic in a GOP primary. One Republican strategist with deep knowledge of the Florida electorate said the electability case could cause the party’s base to see him — as Trump recently described him —as an establishment “RINO” (Republican in name only) and to shirk lessons about candidate quality and electability from the GOP’s underperformance in recent election cycles.
If that’s the downside for DeSantis, the upside is this: His electability argument is helpful with major Republican donors, according to a veteran GOP presidential campaign strategist not yet involved in the 2024 contest. That could help DeSantis limit the size of the candidate field — his clearest pathway toward the party’s nomination — especially given his strength with small-dollar donors who have been recently trending less generous.
That still doesn’t account for Trump, who has already raised salacious claims about the Florida governor’s past and is getting the keys back to his money-raising platform on Facebook.
In the eyes of the strategist in Trump’s orbit, DeSantis should worry that the former president — who claims to have been instrumental in building his political rise — will try to drag him down with him if he falls next year.
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